July 16, 2026: a range-bound options tape
Our automated end-of-session scan surfaced 12 defined-risk setups across 9 names. The average modelled probability of profit was 56%, with implied volatility averaging 40.9% across the list.
See today’s live scanMarket posture
The session leaned neutral: 50% of the setups our scan kept were market-neutral, premium-selling structures such as iron condors — the profile that pays when a name is expected to stay inside a range rather than trend hard either way. When range-bound trades dominate the scan it usually means implied volatility is high enough to be worth selling, but no clear directional edge is on offer.
Where the volatility is
Implied volatility — the price the market puts on future movement — was richest in HOOD (79.1%), SHOP (74.3%), ASML (57.9%). Those are the names where option premium is most inflated, so premium-selling is best paid there, but also where a surprise hurts the most. Fat premium ahead of a catalyst is exactly the "buy the rumor, sell the news" setup: the price is high because the market is bracing for a move.
Setups from the scan
The highest-scoring defined-risk setups from the scan (educational examples, not recommendations):
- Iron Condor on GLD — roughly a 58% modelled probability of profit over 28 days, about $217 of maximum profit against $33 of defined risk, with break-evens near 369.68.
- Bear Put Spread on SAN — roughly a 55% modelled probability of profit over 35 days, about $279 of maximum profit against $21 of defined risk, with break-evens near 13.79.
- Iron Butterfly on GLD — roughly a 53% modelled probability of profit over 28 days, about $290 of maximum profit against $38 of defined risk, with break-evens near 362.87.
- Iron Butterfly on QQQ — roughly a 53% modelled probability of profit over 28 days, about $495 of maximum profit against $64 of defined risk, with break-evens near 703.64.
This note is generated from an automated end-of-session options scan and is educational market commentary — not investment advice or a recommendation to trade. Modelled probabilities and premiums are estimates; real fills and outcomes differ. Options involve substantial risk. Privacy Policy · Terms & Conditions.