July 22, 2026: 12 defined-risk setups on a bearish-leaning tape
Our automated end-of-session scan surfaced 12 defined-risk setups across 12 names. The average modelled probability of profit was 53%, with implied volatility averaging 47.1% across the list.
See today’s live scanMarket posture
The session leaned bearish: more of the setups the scan kept were built to profit if their underlyings weaken — bear call credit spreads and similar. A bearish tilt means the day’s best-scored defined-risk trades were positioned for downside or for a stall, not for a rally.
Where the volatility is
Implied volatility — the price the market puts on future movement — was richest in MU (99.6%), SHOP (74.1%), SOFI (66.7%). Those are the names where option premium is most inflated, so premium-selling is best paid there, but also where a surprise hurts the most. Fat premium ahead of a catalyst is exactly the "buy the rumor, sell the news" setup: the price is high because the market is bracing for a move.
Setups from the scan
The highest-scoring defined-risk setups from the scan (educational examples, not recommendations):
- Bear Call Credit Spread on SPY — roughly a 55% modelled probability of profit over 29 days, about $182 of maximum profit against $119 of defined risk, with break-evens near 752.82.
- Bear Call Credit Spread on QQQ — roughly a 53% modelled probability of profit over 29 days, about $174 of maximum profit against $127 of defined risk, with break-evens near 711.74.
- Bear Call Credit Spread on DIA — roughly a 56% modelled probability of profit over 29 days, about $167 of maximum profit against $133 of defined risk, with break-evens near 525.67.
- Iron Butterfly on SOFI — roughly a 51% modelled probability of profit over 29 days, about $222 of maximum profit against $178 of defined risk, with break-evens near 14.78 / 19.22.
This note is generated from an automated end-of-session options scan and is educational market commentary — not investment advice or a recommendation to trade. Modelled probabilities and premiums are estimates; real fills and outcomes differ. Options involve substantial risk. Privacy Policy · Terms & Conditions.