August 3, 2026: 12 defined-risk setups on a bearish-leaning tape
Our automated end-of-session scan surfaced 12 defined-risk setups across 10 names. The average modelled probability of profit was 57%, with implied volatility averaging 53.9% across the list.
See today’s live scanMarket posture
The session leaned bearish: more of the setups the scan kept were built to profit if their underlyings weaken — bear call credit spreads and similar. A bearish tilt means the day’s best-scored defined-risk trades were positioned for downside or for a stall, not for a rally.
Where the volatility is
Implied volatility — the price the market puts on future movement — was richest in SNOW (81.4%), SHOP (71.6%), COIN (69.6%). Those are the names where option premium is most inflated, so premium-selling is best paid there, but also where a surprise hurts the most. Fat premium ahead of a catalyst is exactly the "buy the rumor, sell the news" setup: the price is high because the market is bracing for a move.
Setups from the scan
The highest-scoring defined-risk setups from the scan (educational examples, not recommendations):
- Iron Butterfly on SHOP — roughly a 63% modelled probability of profit over 31 days, about $641 of maximum profit against $53 of defined risk, with break-evens near 124.47.
- Iron Butterfly on CAT — roughly a 61% modelled probability of profit over 31 days, about $2,224 of maximum profit against $275 of defined risk, with break-evens near 847.25.
- Iron Butterfly on SMH — roughly a 60% modelled probability of profit over 31 days, about $1,257 of maximum profit against $243 of defined risk, with break-evens near 557.58.
- Iron Condor on SMH — roughly a 61% modelled probability of profit over 31 days, about $1,038 of maximum profit against $463 of defined risk, with break-evens near 560.38.
This note is generated from an automated end-of-session options scan and is educational market commentary — not investment advice or a recommendation to trade. Modelled probabilities and premiums are estimates; real fills and outcomes differ. Options involve substantial risk. Privacy Policy · Terms & Conditions.