August 17, 2026: implied volatility runs moderate, topped by MU
Our automated end-of-session scan surfaced 12 defined-risk setups across 12 names. The average modelled probability of profit was 53%, with implied volatility averaging 35.1% across the list.
See today’s live scanMarket posture
The session leaned bearish: more of the setups the scan kept were built to profit if their underlyings weaken — bear call credit spreads and similar. A bearish tilt means the day’s best-scored defined-risk trades were positioned for downside or for a stall, not for a rally.
Where the volatility is
Implied volatility — the price the market puts on future movement — was richest in MU (64.4%), HOOD (56.8%), CRM (49.3%). Those are the names where option premium is most inflated, so premium-selling is best paid there, but also where a surprise hurts the most. Fat premium ahead of a catalyst is exactly the "buy the rumor, sell the news" setup: the price is high because the market is bracing for a move.
Setups from the scan
The highest-scoring defined-risk setups from the scan (educational examples, not recommendations):
- Iron Butterfly on GLD — roughly a 61% modelled probability of profit over 31 days, about $658 of maximum profit against $315 of defined risk, with break-evens near 411.85.
- Bear Call Credit Spread on SPY — roughly a 55% modelled probability of profit over 31 days, about $171 of maximum profit against $129 of defined risk, with break-evens near 776.71.
- Bear Call Credit Spread on QQQ — roughly a 53% modelled probability of profit over 31 days, about $171 of maximum profit against $130 of defined risk, with break-evens near 732.71.
- Iron Butterfly on HOOD — roughly a 52% modelled probability of profit over 31 days, about $1,103 of maximum profit against $898 of defined risk, with break-evens near 83.97 / 106.03.
This note is generated from an automated end-of-session options scan and is educational market commentary — not investment advice or a recommendation to trade. Modelled probabilities and premiums are estimates; real fills and outcomes differ. Options involve substantial risk. Privacy Policy · Terms & Conditions.