August 27, 2026: 12 defined-risk setups on a bearish-leaning tape
Our automated end-of-session scan surfaced 12 defined-risk setups across 11 names. The average modelled probability of profit was 56%, with implied volatility averaging 42.9% across the list.
See today’s live scanMarket posture
The session leaned bearish: more of the setups the scan kept were built to profit if their underlyings weaken — bear call credit spreads and similar. A bearish tilt means the day’s best-scored defined-risk trades were positioned for downside or for a stall, not for a rally.
Where the volatility is
Implied volatility — the price the market puts on future movement — was richest in SNOW (69.7%), ORCL (67.1%), COIN (64.9%). Those are the names where option premium is most inflated, so premium-selling is best paid there, but also where a surprise hurts the most. Fat premium ahead of a catalyst is exactly the "buy the rumor, sell the news" setup: the price is high because the market is bracing for a move.
Setups from the scan
The highest-scoring defined-risk setups from the scan (educational examples, not recommendations):
- Iron Butterfly on ASML — roughly a 55% modelled probability of profit over 28 days, about $3,670 of maximum profit against $830 of defined risk, with break-evens near 1693.3.
- Bear Put Spread on SHEL — roughly a 56% modelled probability of profit over 28 days, about $618 of maximum profit against $182 of defined risk, with break-evens near 91.18.
- Iron Condor on ASML — roughly a 54% modelled probability of profit over 28 days, about $2,170 of maximum profit against $830 of defined risk, with break-evens near 1698.3.
- Iron Butterfly on COIN — roughly a 66% modelled probability of profit over 28 days, about $1,293 of maximum profit against $705 of defined risk, with break-evens near 202.95.
This note is generated from an automated end-of-session options scan and is educational market commentary — not investment advice or a recommendation to trade. Modelled probabilities and premiums are estimates; real fills and outcomes differ. Options involve substantial risk. Privacy Policy · Terms & Conditions.