23 July 2026: Bear Put Spread leads a bearish-leaning scan
Our automated end-of-session scan surfaced 12 defined-risk setups across 9 names. The average modelled probability of profit was 57%, with implied volatility averaging 36.7% across the list.
See today’s live scanMarket posture
The session leaned bearish: more of the setups the scan kept were built to profit if their underlyings weaken — bear call credit spreads and similar. A bearish tilt means the day’s best-scored defined-risk trades were positioned for downside or for a stall, not for a rally.
Where the volatility is
Implied volatility — the price the market puts on future movement — was richest in INTC (97.9%), SHOP (74.8%), GM (36.8%). Those are the names where option premium is most inflated, so premium-selling is best paid there, but also where a surprise hurts the most. Fat premium ahead of a catalyst is exactly the "buy the rumor, sell the news" setup: the price is high because the market is bracing for a move.
Setups from the scan
The highest-scoring defined-risk setups from the scan (educational examples, not recommendations):
- Bear Put Spread on SAN — roughly a 68% modelled probability of profit over 28 days, about $274 of maximum profit against $26 of defined risk, with break-evens near 13.74.
- Iron Butterfly on DIA — roughly a 58% modelled probability of profit over 28 days, about $405 of maximum profit against $78 of defined risk, with break-evens near 520.23.
- Iron Condor on DIA — roughly a 60% modelled probability of profit over 28 days, about $315 of maximum profit against $85 of defined risk, with break-evens near 521.15.
- Bear Call Credit Spread on QQQ — roughly a 54% modelled probability of profit over 28 days, about $200 of maximum profit against $100 of defined risk, with break-evens near 696.
This note is generated from an automated end-of-session options scan and is educational market commentary — not investment advice or a recommendation to trade. Modelled probabilities and premiums are estimates; real fills and outcomes differ. Options involve substantial risk. Informativa sulla privacy · Termini e condizioni.