Reward-to-risk ratio
リワード・リスク・レシオ。最大利益を最大損失で割った比率で、たとえば0.5なら2ドルのリスクに対し1ドルの利益が見込めることを意味する。単独では確率を無視するため、利益確率と併せて読む。
The reward-to-risk ratio is a trade's maximum possible profit divided by its maximum possible loss — a pure comparison of what you stand to make against what you stand to lose. A ratio of 0.5 means you can make one dollar for every two you put at risk, while a ratio of 2 flips that around. It is a defined-risk measure by nature: you need a knowable max profit and max loss, which is why it fits spreads, condors and butterflies far better than naked or unlimited-risk positions.
In practice it is the quickest read on a trade's payoff shape. Premium-selling structures like credit spreads and iron condors usually carry a reward-to-risk below one — you risk more than you can make — and they earn it back through a high win rate. Long options and debit spreads flip the picture, offering a large payoff for a small outlay but hitting far less often. The ratio itself does not tell you which is better; it just describes the trade-off you are signing up for.
The common mistake is treating a favourable ratio as a good trade on its own. Reward-to-risk ignores the odds entirely — a 3-to-1 payoff is a loser if it only wins one time in five — so it is only half the equation. Always pair it with probability of profit, because the two together, not either alone, are what determine whether the trade has positive expected value.
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