Max pain

マックス・ペイン。最も多くのオプション・プレミアムが無価値で失効する権利行使価格で、オプション買い手全体の損失が最大になる水準。

Max pain is the strike price at which the largest number of outstanding options (calls and puts combined) would expire worthless, causing the greatest total loss for option buyers. The idea comes from the notion that, at expiration, the underlying tends to drift toward the price where option holders collectively lose the most and option sellers keep the most premium.

In practice, traders calculate it by adding up the value of all open calls and puts at each strike, then finding the strike where that total payout to holders is smallest. If a stock trades at 102 with heavy open interest clustered at the 100 strike, the 100 level may act as a magnet into expiration Friday.

Treat it as one clue, not a prediction. Max pain shifts as open interest changes, it only really matters near expiration for very liquid names, and plenty of stocks close nowhere near it. Using it as your sole reason to enter a trade is the common mistake.

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